May inflation: still tame.
Posted on June 13, 2025

Inflation in May was less than inflation in April. Inflation in the month was the third lowest in the last year. The six-month run rate is about 2.6% for the year, lower than the prior 3.0% run rate. The historial 12-month rate for inflation has been below 3% inflation for the past year.

 

I display a table and six graphs that I use to follow the trends in inflation.

 

 

Details:

 

The two most widely-reported measures of inflation are Seasonally-adjusted inflation and Core inflation.

 

Seasonally-adjusted inflation is the most widely reported measure of inflation. May inflation was low – the third lowest out of the past 12.

 

 

Core inflation excludes volatile energy and food components. May was also the third lowest out of the past 12.

 

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) excluding Food and Energy is the measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve Board favors. It’s most similar to Core inflation, but it tends to run a bit lower. The graph shows the data ending April; data for May is issued at the end of this month. The last six aim at an annual rate of 2.6%.

 

 

== History of 12-month inflation rates ==

 

Full-year inflation measured by CPI-U shows that inflation for the last 12 months is at 2.4%; that’s basically the same as last month. The past 12-month rate has been below 3.0% for the past 12 months

 

 

== Producer’s Price Index ==

 

The change in producer prices will impact consumer inflation. PPI for May was low. The rate for the past 12 months was 1.5%.

 

 

== Services ==

 

Inflation for services was in line with prior months. The last six months average to 3.2% annual rate.

 

 

 

Conclusion: The inflation measures released this week for May were in line with recent months: we have not seen an increase due to greater tariffs. Measures aim at about 2.6% annual inflation.