Category Archives: Uncategorized

What segments of the market outperformed in 2025?

I like arranging the most recent calendar year returns in the 3 by 3 matrix of the Investment Style Box. I get a snapshot of what outperformed and what underperformed the US stock market as a whole. This post is a repeat of the

Will 2026 be a good year for stocks and bonds?

Happy Holidays! Last week I went to a talk by Stu Hoffman, past chief economist from PNC. I think I’ve attended this event in all but one year out of the last ten or so. Here are the highlights of his prediction for 2026,

What happened to inflation? Where is it?

Wow! Inflation reported for October + November was REALLY LOW. We have not had two months with inflation this low in the last +five years.

 

I display a table and graphs that I use to follow the trends in inflation. One that I usually

How do you track to a real increase in your Safe Spending Amount next year?

I’ll use this spreadsheet to track how well our portfolio is doing for our calculation year ending November 30, 2026: will we calculate to an increase in our Safe Spending Amount for 2027? (SSA. Chapter 2, Nest Egg Care [NEC]) If you use

Did you calculate to at least 6% real increase in your Safe Spending Amount for 2026?

I use the 12 months ending November 30 to calculate our Safe Spending Amount for the upcoming year (SSA, Chapter 2, Nest Egg Care [NEC]): that’s what we can safely sell from our portfolio for our spending and know that we will not

What’s the simple addition to see if IRMAA might be a problem?

My sister-in-law called and wanted me to help her understand how close she and her husband might be to crossing an IRMAA tripwire. I said I would send a spreadsheet. She said she did not know how to use a spreadsheet. I gave her the

Should you Sell Before the Crash?

Popular press reports and indicators of value like the Shiller’s analysis of P/E ratios say the US stock market is way overvalued. Some experts are predicting a crash due to massive government debt, over-hyped AI expectations, Trump’s tariffs and trouble in the lending markets. We

How big will our pay increase be for our spending in 2026?

Patti and I are one month away from our calculation date of our Safe Spending Amount (SSA, Chapter 2, Nest Egg Care [NEC]). October returns were about 1.5% for our portfolio. We hit a new high-water mark. We’re on track for about a

Has inflation started to bite?

Inflation has not started to bite. Inflation reported today shows September inflation was not much different that the last six months. It’s not pointing to the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, but we can’t conclude that it’s increasing.

 

I display a table and five

You now have more than you’ve ever had in your life.

The stock market hit a peak this week. At the end of September, our portfolio is ~19% greater in real spending power than it was more than ten years ago despite our withdrawals for spending that have added up to more than 60% of our

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