How big will our pay increase be for our spending in 2026?
Posted on November 1, 2025

Patti and I are one month away from our calculation date of our Safe Spending Amount (SSA, Chapter 2, Nest Egg Care [NEC]). October returns were about 1.5% for our portfolio. We hit a new high-water mark. We’re on track for about a 6% real increase in our SSA for our spending in 2026.

 

Details:

 

I track our returns on this chart. (This is the spreadsheet I provided in this post.) We’ve earned a bit over 12% real return for the year.

 

 

This translates to ~6% real “pay” increase in our SSA for our spending in 2026.

 

 

Your pay increase would likely be greater than ours. You likely withdrew a smaller percentage that we did: you likely are younger and your age-appropriate Safe Spending Rate (SSR%, Chapter 2, NEC) is lower than ours. And you may be applying a greater SSR% for the calculation than you used last year.

 

== I don’t have to wait ==

 

I could actually lock in this 6% real increase now. I really don’t have to wait to November 30. I would use this high-water mark as the point and sell securities (or earmark the number of shares of securities to sell later) for our spending for 2026 now and avoid the uncertainty of November returns. (The true high-water mark was a few days earlier than on October 31, but I’ll ignore that.)

 

If I sold securities and returns were positive in November, I’d just sell more securities for that new high-water mark.

 

But I’ve been on autopilot for more than ten years: I’ll follow my normal routine and do my final calculation on December 1: I’ll take my lumps – have lower increase in our SSA – if returns decline in November.

 

 

Conclusion: Patti and I have completed 11 months in our 12-month return year that I use to calculate our Safe Spending Amount as our “pay” from our portfolio for 2026.

 

Our year-to-date calculation is a 6% real pay increase. If your portfolio is similar to ours and you follow the same calculation steps, you likely calculate to a greater real increase than we do: you’re likely younger and withdrew less than we did last December 1.

 

I could use this high-water mark and sell securities now for our spending for 2026 and avoid the effect of a decline in November. I’ve been on autopilot for more than ten years, and will just wait and do the calculation on December 1. I’ll take what November gives us: we’ll have more or less than 6% real increase in our SSA for 2026.