Is inflation increasing?
Posted on March 13, 2026

(Back from India. Unforgettable experience. More Later.) On the topic of this post: Nope. Inflation was basically the same in February as in previous months. Inflation reported yesterday shows the February rate Core Inflation, the measure that does not include more volatile food and energy components, was less than 2.5% on an annual basis. Inflation measures that do include food and energy show a small uptick for Feburary, but the February rate for those is less roughly 3% on an annual basis.

 

I display a table and graphs that I use to follow the trends in inflation.

 

 

Details:

 

The two most widely-reported measures of inflation are Seasonally-adjusted inflation and Core inflation.

 

Seasonally-adjusted inflation is the most widely reported measure of inflation. February inflation higher was not substantially different than prior months. The rate for last six months was at 2.5% annual rate. The 12-month rate is 2.7%.

 

 

Core inflation excludes volatile energy and food components. It’s a similar story to seasonally-adjusted inflation. The last six months run at 2.3% inflation and the 12-month inflation is 2.6%.

 

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) excluding Food and Energy is the measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve Board favors. I show the most recent data for December. Reported data is one month behind schedule. I exclude that graph.

 

 

== History of 12-month inflation rates ==

 

Full-year inflation measured by CPI-U was 2.4%. It’s bobbled  around that rate or a little higher for about a year or so.

 

 

I add a graph that shows the monthly trends. Inflation in Jan and Feb was higher than other months. The recent increases reflect higher energy prices.

 

 

== Producer’s Price Index ==

 

This chart was updated this week through January. February’s report is issued next week. The recent six-moth rate below 0% inflation.

 

 

== Services ==

 

Inflation for services for the last six months average to 2.7% annual rate. The 12-month rate is 2.9%.

 

 

 

Conclusion: The inflation measures released this week for December were in line with past months. We have not seen much of an increase due to greater tariffs. Inflation runs at about 2.5%. We are not trending to the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2% annual inflation.