Are we headed to 5% increase for next year’s Social Security?
Posted on June 12, 2026
The Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security (SS) looks like it will be at least 4.6% in 2027. Inflation for the measure SS uses for its COLA calculation ran wild the last three months – at an annual rate of 12%.
Your net increase in your SS deposit each month is affected by the increase in Medicare Part B premiums. I’m not finding a good estimate of the increase for 2027. The final amount is typically announced in November.
Details:
SS’s COLA is based on the change in inflation of CPI-W for the months July, August and September compared to the prior year. We have the inflation measure for May. We have four more months to the end of September.
CPI-W surged in March: the increase for that month was 1.3%. Inflation for the last three added to 3%.
The next four months will replace four months from a year ago that were much lower than recent inflation. If I project that next four months at 4% annual rate – much lower than the recent three months – COLA will be 4.6%.
Conclusion: We’ve had enough months and enough inflation to get an idea of how out Social Security benefit will increase in the next calendar year. It looks like we’ll see at least a 4.6% increasel.