What measures of inflation SOARED in March?
Posted on April 11, 2026

Several measures of inflation that include energy and food components SOARED in March; the monthly change was the highest since the recent peak in inflation ~four years ago in June 2022. Gasoline was up 20% from the prior month. Fuel oil was up 30%. Core Inflation, the measure that does not include more volatile food and energy components, was similar to past months: the recent six-month rate was about 2.2%.

 

I display a table and four graphs that I use to follow the trends in inflation.

 

 

Details:

 

The two most widely-reported measures of inflation are Seasonally-adjusted inflation and Core inflation.

 

Seasonally-adjusted inflation is the most widely reported measure of inflation. March inflation was nearly 0.9%. This is the largest monthly increase since the recent peak of inflation in June 2022. The six-month rate jumped to 3.3% annual rate; that’s the highest in two years. The 12-month rate is 3.3% and is also the highest in about four years.

 

 

Core inflation excludes volatile energy and food components. The last six months run at 2.2% inflation and the 12-month inflation is 2.6%. Those are about the same or slightly better than the last two years.

 

 

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) excluding Food and Energy is the measure of inflation that the Federal Reserve Board favors. This similar to Core inflation, but this measure shows higher inflation. (It usually shows lower inflation.) The last six months average 3.4% inflation and the last year was 3.0%.

 

 

== History of 12-month inflation rates ==

 

Full-year inflation measured by CPI-U jumped to 3.3% from 2.4%.

 

 

I add a graph that shows the monthly trends. Inflation JUMPED 1.1% in March. Again, this is the largest monthly increase since June 2022.

 

 

== Producer’s Price Index ==

 

The PPI increased by 2% in February! March’s report comes out next week. recent six-month rate is at 4.4% annual rate.

 

 

== Services ==

 

Inflation for services for the last six months average to 2.7% annual rate. The 12-month rate is 3.0 %.

 

 

 

Conclusion: Inflation measures released this week for March SOARED if they include the more volatile food and energy components. The inflation measure the Fed favors does not include food and energy and is running at about 3.4% annual rate. We clearly are not trending to the Federal Reserve’s goal of 2% annual inflation.