Will our SS benefits be cut by 22%?
Posted on June 19, 2026

Social Security (SS) now estimates that SS benefits can remain at 100% of current benefits through 2032; that’s one quarter less than the estimate last year. Thereafter, benefits would be cut by 22% if there is no change to SS. We’ll see changes to SS, but I don’t think anyone contemplates cuts for current recipients. They’ll solve this problem with a combination an increase in the SS tax and a cut in benefits for future recipients.

• They can increase revenues.

– They can increase the combined employee-employer tax rate from the current 12.4%.

– They can increase the top amount subject to tax; thats’ $184,500 in 2026.

• They can decrease benefits.

– An increase in the Full Retirement Age, 67, means a cut for all future recipients.

Example: currently you get 100% of your “Primary Insurance Amount (PIA)” at your Full Retirement Age, 67. If you delay to age 70, you get 124% of that. If they changed the Full Retirement Age to 70, (This is an extreme example to illustrate the point.) you’d get 100% of your PIA at age 70, not 124%: that’s a ~20% cut from now. That math (but not 20% in all cases) would apply to all 96 months you could choose to start SS from age 62 to 70.

– They can change the formula that calculates your PIA. The current formula weights your average monthly SS wages over your best 35 years to give greater SS benefits to those with lower work income. 90% of the lowest increment (equivalent to about $14,000 in average annual pay) is included in your PIA, but just 15% of the highest increment (equivalent to average annual pay over $92,000). SS could change the formula to keep (or improve) the amount that lower wage workers get by lowering the amount that higher wage workers get.

SS is the sole income for about 25% of all retirees. Any cuts to the lower 25% or even the lowest 50% of recipients is a big financial hit.

This is a good article on how small actions can close the gap.

Conclusion: Social Security estimates that with no changes current benefits remain the same through the end of 2032. Thereafter, benefits would have to be cut by 22%. This will be fixed with a combination of higher taxes and lower benefits for future recipients. No one, I think, contemplates lowering benefits to current recipients.